Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and fisheries distribution with the North Atlantic Oscillation
Abstract
Increasing evidence supports relationships between fisheries distribution and climate
variability. The main driver of climate variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Fisheries distribution is influenced by sea
surface temperature (SST), which displays a dynamic relationship with the NAO. To
assess these relationships, we conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of SST, fisheries
distribution, and the NAO from 1986 to 2008 in the Northwest Atlantic and Gulf of
Mexico. We conducted a pixel-level linear regression analysis with the USGS Curve
Fit tool in ArcMap to examine the spatial patterns of correlation coefficients and
goodness of fit between monthly SST and monthly NAO index. We identified five regions
in the Northwest Atlantic, and two regions in the Gulf of Mexico, where coefficients
demonstrated relatively significant correlation between SST and the NAO. These regions
were consistent with local ocean circulation patterns. To assess the relationship
between the NAO and fisheries distribution in the identified correlation regions,
we calculated linear regressions between tuna and swordfish catches and effort distribution
with the NAO as the explanatory variable. Our results suggest that our linear model
with the NAO as the single explanatory variable was too simplistic to explain fisheries
catch and distribution variability. Further study using different models and explanatory
variables may elucidate significant relationships between SST, fisheries distribution,
and the NAO. Trends between fisheries and the NAO may provide insight into future
effects of climate change on fish stocks with implications for fisheries management.
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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/8521Citation
Griefen, Ana; & Bonamusa, Jessica (2014). Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and fisheries distribution
with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/8521.Collections
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