Coupled Social, Natural, and Economic Systems: Advancing the Renewable Energy Crossover by 13 Years

Abstract

Achieving deep decarbonization requires more than technological solutions, demands a systemic understanding of how economic activity, energy demand, and climate feedback co evolve. Yet most integrated models assume unidirectional causality, overlooking the nonlinear feedback loops that shape emission pathways. Here, we develop the Integrated Socio–Energy– Ecologic–Climate–Economics (ISE3C) model, which explicitly couples climate-induced economic damages with energy system dynamics. By endogenizing Climate-Adjusted GDP (CA-GDP), the model captures how warming suppresses economic output, thereby altering primary energy demand and fossil fuel use. Scenario simulations reveal that early investment and rapid policy response can accelerate the renewable crossover by up to 13 years. However, economic feedback also slows clean energy diffusion, delaying deep decarbonization despite lower aggregate emissions. These findings highlight the dual-edged nature of climate– economy feedback: while they may reduce demand, they also risk stalling transitions unless counterbalanced by proactive policy and investment.