The Dynamics of Estimated Health Burdens Due to Air Pollution Exposure – A Case Study in China

Abstract

Even though new emission control efforts have been undertaken to reduce air pollution after the first amendment to China’s environmental protection law, the task of reducing air pollution-induced health burdens still becomes increasingly difficult due to the population aging. China’s older population group (above 60) has increased from 7.78% in 1980 to 13.6% in 2015 and is projected to increase to 24.4% in 2030. In this study, we analyze the contribution of trends in long-term O3 exposure, population demographics and baseline mortality rates on both the magnitude of health burden estimates from respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases. Three scenarios were created. Using results from long-term ozone exposure threshold and population-weighted ozone concentration, Scenario 1 (Aging-only) reported 301 000 (95% CI: 211, 382 thousand) respiratory mortalities and 286 000 (95% CI: 98, 465 thousand) cardiovascular mortalities, Scenario 2 (Low-exposure & Low-mortality) reported 172 000 (95% CI: 120, 221 thousand) respiratory mortalities and 174 000 (95% CI: 59, 284 thousand) andScenario 3 (USA-baseline) reported a result of 103 000 (95% CI: 71, 133 thousand) respiratory mortalities and 102 000 (95% CI: 34, 167 thousand) cardiovascular mortalities in year 2030. This study highlighted the comparative advantage in reducing the population weighted ozone concentration than in improving overall respiratory and cardiovascular survival rates.