Resource-Extractive Concessionary Activity and Malaria Incidence in the Peruvian, Ecuadorian, and Brazilian Amazons: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Abstract

Malaria is a vector-borne disease (VBD) transmitted by the Anopheles mosquito, resulting in greater than 240 million cases and over 600,000 deaths annually. In the Americas, 90% of cases occur in the Amazon, where malaria transmission is linked to anthropogenic land use change, particularly activities related to resource extraction, migration, and infrastructure development in underdeveloped, rural areas. Using publicly available data on concessionary activity sourced from government ministries and registries, Global Forest Watch, and USFQ’s Hub Amazonia, the relationship between malaria incidence and the resource-extractive concessionary activity of mining, hydrocarbon, and logging concessions in the Ecuadorian, Peruvian, and Brazilian Amazon regions between 2011 and 2020 was investigated using GIS software and various regression modelling techniques. Mining and logging concessions were associated with 2.4 and 1.3 percent increases in P. vivax incidence, respectively, in Peru, and mining concessions was associated 6.5 percent increase in P. falciparum incidence in Ecuador. Across the Amazon Biome, mining and logging concessionary area were associated with 0.3 percent and 1.4 percent increases in P. vivax incidence, respectively. Identifying the relationship between resource-extractive concessionary activity and malaria incidence can help refine malaria forecasting models as well as inform stakeholders and regulatory agencies on the importance of integrating malaria control and prevention strategies into resource extraction and land development plans.