Preparation is the Key to Success: Strategies for Pre-Emptive Managed Retreat in Vulnerable Coastal Municipalities

Introduction As climate change increasingly affects communities, vulnerable coastal municipalities are grappling with more severe and frequent flooding and stronger storms. Coastal communities must consider ways to adapt to climate change effects by implementing planning tools that make communities more resilient. One planning tool, managed retreat, moves people and property out of harm’s way through strategies like government-facilitated buyouts and acquisitions and economic- and zoning-based techniques like rolling easements and transfer of development rights. Managed retreat in the United States has traditionally been implemented after Presidentially Declared Disasters, leveraging post-disaster federal funding to move people out of the most severely damaged properties in affected communities. However, communities are increasingly considering future flood risk and are planning pre-emptive, or pre-disaster, managed retreat programs. This project defines pre-emptive managed retreat programs as ones proactively planning for or addressing natural hazards exposure that do not rely on post-disaster federal funding to finance the programs.

Because pre-emptive managed retreat programs are still relatively rare, studying programs that have already been planned or implemented can provide insights into the retreat strategies communities are using, how communities are overcoming program hurdles, and information about people’s attitudes towards climate change-related hazards and retreat. This project aims to understand the pre-emptive managed retreat strategies that coastal communities in the eastern United States are using, as well as the challenges these early adopters have faced. It also aims to understand how communities are financing or planning to finance pre-emptive retreat because these programs are very expensive and there is limited federal funding for pre-disaster retreat. The project also explores the ways government leaders have engaged with community members and how community engagement shaped the program development process. Finally, this project uncovers information about program implementation timelines and the ways communities are bridging the gap between planning and implementation.

Methods I addressed my research questions through the case study analysis of six coastal communities in the eastern United States that are planning for or implementing pre-emptive managed retreat programs. I identified pre-emptive managed retreat programs in Massachusetts, Virginia, and Florida to get geographic representation along the coast, and focused on two programs in each state for inter- and intra-state comparison. I started by analyzing planning documents available online which built my baseline knowledge about each program and helped me identify gaps in that knowledge. I next conducted 13 semi-structured interviews with local government leaders which helped me gain additional information to answer the questions I identified during the plan analysis process. Finally, I analyzed the interview transcripts by conducting a theme analysis to better understand details about the programs’ financing, community engagement, and implementation.

Results In addition to program-specific details about the retreat strategies communities are using, and financing, community engagement, and implementation details for each program, I identified common themes among municipalities. First, financing is a barrier to implementation. Municipal budgets are not large enough to fund large-scale retreat programs. Particularly because the real estate market is extremely hot across the country, potential participants can easily sell their homes on the regular market. Communities are working to get funding from state and federal sources, which may help fill the funding gap.

Additionally, pre-emptive retreat is generally viewed as a future necessity. Pre-emptive retreat is seen as a fork in the road that communities might need to take in the future rather than a pressing current reality. In some cases, this future planning approach reflects the community’s view that managed retreat will be necessary for future generations of homeowners, not the current homeowners in the municipality. Even if communities wait to implement these programs, planning for managed retreat in the near term allows community leaders to be prepared when residents need to retreat and gives leaders time to discuss the subject of retreat with residents through continued engagement efforts.

Community engagement will be particularly important during the years before program implementation because no community plans to use eminent domain. All near-term programs will be voluntary, which will require government leaders to get community buy-in, especially for programs where specific neighborhoods are planned for retreat.

There is little-to-no coordination among communities. This is a missed opportunity for programs to avoid missteps and share ideas and resources that might improve the retreat process. Professional networks may be an appropriate and convenient forum for these conversations, and governments may also consider integrating engagement with other program leaders into the community engagement process during program planning.

Finally, the policy entrepreneurs I spoke with inspired me with their dedication to improving community resilience, viewing retreat not as a failure but as an opportunity to build a stronger community. Despite the challenges these leaders face in planning and implementing pre-emptive retreat programs, they are determined to equip their communities for future hazards and mitigate future climate risk through retreat.

This project broadens research on managed retreat programs by focusing on pre-emptive retreat, which is relatively uncommon compared to post-disaster retreat. Understanding the strategies communities are using to pre-emptively plan for retreat and how these communities are addressing funding, community engagement, and implementation challenges can help build institutional knowledge about pre-emptive managed retreat among the academic community and practitioners.

Pre-emptive managed retreat allows communities to plan for and implement retreat programs outside a post-disaster scenario, which can move people and property out of harm’s way before the next disaster. Studying six case study communities that have planned or implemented pre-emptive managed retreat programs demonstrated the types of retreat strategies communities are considering, details about how communities can overcome retreat challenges, and common themes that are present among the cases. These cases demonstrate that, despite the challenges, pre-emptive retreat program planning is a viable and meaningful step in adaptation planning and can help communities prepare for future climate change effects.