The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: The Potential Decrease in Food Quality in the European Union

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) is a free trade agreement (FTA) currently under negotiation between the governments of the United States and the European Union. While certain regulations in other areas will likely be harmonized through convergence, the food and agriculture-related parts of T-TIP will be likely be a mutual recognition agreement (MRA). Significant problems with the National Organic Program (NOP) and the structure of the U.S. food production system itself are two issues within the food production chain in the United States that could lead to a decrease in the quality of food in the European Union after the implementation of the T-TIP, even if standards are maintained under an MRA. In this research, production to import ratios for 11 FTAs in combination with changes in domestic production and imports are analyzed. The analysis aims to determine the existence, or lack thereof, of a trend of imports of lower quality and cheaper food to countries with higher quality production systems. Findings include that ‘high quality’ countries entering into agreements with ‘low quality’ countries have the general effect of decreasing their domestic production to foreign import ratios over time, leading to less high quality food available in the domestic market. This trend is strongest for FTAs with the United States, and therefore, as supported by the analysis, is the best indicator of the T-TIP structure and it's likely market effects. Because of production conditions in the United States, implementation of the T-TIP will lead to an increase in imports of lower quality, cheap food to the European Union, which will result in a lowering of high quality domestically produced food available in the European market.