Modeling the Market Penetration of Advanced Lighting Controls in the U.S Commercial Sector

This paper describes one method of modeling current and future market penetration of advanced lighting controls as a function of commercial floor space. We take advanced lighting controls to mean dimmers, photosensors, occupancy or motion sensors, multi-step switches, and timers. We initialize the model with commercial floor space data from the Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, accounting for renovation, demolition, and region. The floor space is then associated with the building code that was in effect during the construction or renovation year, providing a link between existing commercial floor space and its coverage by advanced lighting controls. We make assumptions about demolition, renovation, and compliance rates. We find that mandating full compliance with the current Federal building code would increase commercial floor space with automatic lighting shutoff from 78% to 90%.