An Evaluation of Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) Distribution and Habitat Availability in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under Climate Change

Abstract

Fishery scientists are increasingly concerned about the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and ecosystem health. Many marine species along the Northeast United States continental shelf have shifted spatial distribution and abundance in response to local climate variability and large-scale warming. Such shifts over time can influence management decisions to adjust commercial and recreational allocation along the eastern seaboard, as demonstrated in recent state allocation changes for Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata). This master’s project evaluates black sea bass fishery-independent survey and fishery-dependent landings data (1986-2019) using a two-stage generalized additive model to identify the importance of environmental factors in shaping their spatial abundance and project future distribution shifts under a “business as usual” climate change scenario in which future carbon emissions are consistent with the current pace of global emissions. This approach may provide insight into future suitable habitat availability of black sea bass, and this master’s project serves to contextualize the need for adaptive management that increases the equitable and economically sound distribution of access to marine resources in a changing climate.