Essays on Macroeconomics in Mixed Frequency Estimations
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2011
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Abstract
This dissertation asks whether frequency misspecification of a New Keynesian model
results in temporal aggregation bias of the Calvo parameter. First, when a
New Keynesian model is estimated at a quarterly frequency while the true
data generating process is the same but at a monthly frequency, the Calvo
parameter is upward biased and hence implies longer average price duration.
This suggests estimating a New Keynesian model at a monthly frequency may
yield different results. However, due to mixed frequency datasets in macro
time series recorded at quarterly and monthly intervals, an estimation
methodology is not straightforward. To accommodate mixed frequency datasets,
this paper proposes a data augmentation method borrowed from Bayesian
estimation literature by extending MCMC algorithm with
"Rao-Blackwellization" of the posterior density. Compared to two alternative
estimation methods in context of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models, this
augmentation method delivers lower root mean squared errors for parameters
of interest in New Keynesian model. Lastly, a medium scale New Keynesian
model is brought to the actual data, and the benchmark estimation, i.e. the
data augmentation method, finds that the average price duration implied by
the monthly model is 5 months while that by the quarterly model is 20.7
months.
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Kim, Tae Bong (2011). Essays on Macroeconomics in Mixed Frequency Estimations. Dissertation, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3837.
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