Model the Hidden Cost of China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality: Potential Biodiversity Impacts of Wind and Solar Energy Expansion

Li, Binbin

Zhou, Zhijie

2023-05-04T15:19:15Z

2023-05-04T15:19:15Z

2023-05-04

Nicholas School of the Environment

Large-scale renewable energy deployments, as urgent solutions to mitigate climate change and its consequences, are reshaping the landscape in the human-environment nexus. Albeit promoted as pathways to bend the curve of biodiversity loss through their emission reduction and habitat restoration potential, renewables require significant land assets per unit energy and could impose high cost to ecosystems, triggering potential conflicts between global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. As China expanding its landscape of large-scale wind and solar energy facilities to fulfill its ambitious “2060 Carbon Neutrality” goals, an assessment of the potential areas of such concerns at a high resolution can provide insights for stakeholders to effectively manage biodiversity impacts of renewable power transitions. This project used suitability analysis to identify and predict the potential land use conflict between wind and solar energy expansion and biodiversity conservation in China under the 2060 announced pledge scenario in contrast to the biz-as-usual model of renewables expansion rate. We also quantify the biodiversity impacts of such expansion scenarios by estimating the mean richness and rarity scores, along with ecosystem service values and conflicting zones with Key Biodiversity Areas. Although our results indicated the renewables expansion under China’s ambitious goals tend not to encroach a high ratio of prioritized areas for biodiversity, the potential impacts in regions without the strictest protection are still worth investigation, as illustrated in our case studies for the Qilianshan-Qinghaihu Region and Hainan Province. The study provides insights for decision-makers to develop renewable energy facilities while protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services.

https://hdl.handle.net/10161/27341

en_US

Renewable energy

carbon neutrality

Biodiversity conservation

land use conflict

China

Model the Hidden Cost of China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality: Potential Biodiversity Impacts of Wind and Solar Energy Expansion

Master's project

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