Climate Change Effects on the Significant Tornadoes in the United States

Abstract

Tornadoes are one of the most destructive natural hazards in the United States, with significant human and financial impacts. An increasing trend in tornado events and a southeastern shift from traditional Tornado Alley to Dixie Alley were observed. This study analyzes the influence of climate change on significant tornado activity (EF2 or greater) over the period 1979–2023, covering tornado-prone region in the U.S. Through time-series analysis and correlation test, results show stable long-term in significant tornadoes but increased year-to-year variability, with more activity during the cold season in recent years. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic exhibit a delayed influence on U.S. tornado activity by modifying pressure patterns and enhancing Gulf moisture transport. These findings underscore the role of SST-driven ocean-atmosphere interactions in shaping tornado risk and highlight potential predictive signals for future climate-tornado forecasting.