The shift to a more turbulent IB environment, and how MNEs respond to this shift
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2026-03-01
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Since the mid-2010s, multinational enterprises (MNEs) have operated in an increasingly turbulent international business (IB) environment characterized by geoplitical frictions, trade protectionism, intensified FDI screening, and assertive techno-nationalist industrial policies. These developments mark a shift from the efficiency-driven globalization of 1980–2016 toward strategies emphasizing supply chain resilience and local responsiveness. This paper contrasts the relative stability of the neoliberal era with today’s fragmented regulatory landscape, tracing the transition from multilateralism to renewed economic nationalism. It examines how evolving industrial policies affect MNEs from advanced and emerging economies. The paper identifies adaptive responses—including reconfiguring global value chains, increasing inventories, diversifying suppliers, engaging in non-market strategies, and enhancing digital transparency. It concludes by outlining alternative trajectories for globalization: a bifurcation into hegemon-led blocs or a revival of multilateral cooperation grounded in comparative advantage, knowledge diffusion, and the enduring mutual gains from cross-border investment.
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Contractor, FJ, J Cantwell, G Gereffi and KP Sauvant (2026). The shift to a more turbulent IB environment, and how MNEs respond to this shift. International Business Review, 35(2). pp. 102538–102538. 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2025.102538 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/34331.
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Gary Gereffi
Gary Gereffi is Emeritus Professor of Sociology and Director of the Global Value Chains Center at Duke University (https://gvcc.duke.edu/). He has published over a dozen books and numerous articles on globalization, industrial upgrading, and social and economic development, and he is one of the originators of the global value chains framework. His most recent books are: Handbook on Global Value Chains (co-edited by Stefano Ponte, Gary Gereffi and Gale Raj-Reichert), Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. 2019); and Global Value Chains and Development: Redefining the Contours of 21st Century Capitalism (Cambridge University Press, 2018). Current projects include: (1) the impact of U.S. protectionism on jobs and regional trade agreements; (2) evaluating how the digital economy and Industry 4.0 are likely to affect international business strategies and industrial upgrading; and (3) shifting regional interdependencies in East Asia and North America, with a focus on China, South Korea and Mexico vis-à-vis the United States.
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