For One Tooth, the Entire Jaw: Cross-Border Extremism, Coercive Diplomacy, and the India-Pakistan Security Dyad

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the factors that affect the stability of the current security dilemma between India and Pakistan. In particular, it develops a strong link between the advent of cross-border militant attacks and the potential for escalation to nuclear-level conflict. A survey of three major case studies—the 2001 “Twin Peaks” crisis, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, and the 2016 Uri incident—suggests that a number of changing contextual and strategic factors contribute to the increasing destabilization of the status quo. These factors are as follows: Pakistan’s acquisition/posturing of tactical nuclear warheads, India’s shift from a strategy of coercive diplomacy to persuasive compellance, and the growing internal security threat that violent extremists pose within Pakistan. This analysis concludes with a series of policy recommendations that India, Pakistan, and influential third-party actors can implement in order to introduce greater stability to the region.