Emission Trajectories of BC Compared to CO2 and SO2 Based on Global Country-level Emission Inventories

Black carbon (BC), as an essential component of particulate matters causing air pollution, has been recently recognized as the second largest contributor to global warming. The emission trajectory of BC with increase of income and the determinants of it are studied in this project, with analysis in different sectors and regions. It shows that BC developed a unique pattern of emission trajectories dominated by the mixture of fuel switch in residential sector and demand growth in transportation sector. This contrasts the typical understanding of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) trajectories for air pollutants and greenhouse gases, which have been heavily studied in the forms of SO2 and CO2 respectively. Based on the same inventory, emission trajectories with income for CO2, SO2, and BC are compared, with CO2 and SO2 fitted with quadratic EKC. Based on the depicted emission trajectories of countries in power, industrial, residential, and transportation sectors, analysis are led on the effectiveness of regulation, influences of natural resources, and the relationship with different developmental patterns.