The Future of Coffee Production in a Changing Climate – Will Demand Outpace Supply?

Abstract

The coffee sector is valued at $102 billion, but its future growth is at risk of a supply deficit due to climate change. Conservation International (CI) is a global environmental nonprofit organization dedicated to preserving forested and protected land from future coffee expansion. To achieve CI’s goal, a methodology was developed to project coffee supply into 2050, considering changing bioclimatic and social conditions for Brazil and Vietnam’s coffee industries. Estimated supply was forecasted based on quantifiable variables. For variables that were only qualifiable, their influence on production was analyzed using magnitude and direction. Results show numerous bioclimatic and social parameters negatively affect coffee production, the most profound being increases in atmospheric temperature. Our work will continue to be augmented with additional research to understand the interaction and quantifiable effects of these variables on future production and forest/protected land encroachment. This project additionally outlines high-level management and investment recommendations to incentivize industry action.