Tough on Terror: Analyzing the Impact of Counterterrorism Efforts on Salafi-Jihadist Radicalization Networks in Belgium, France, and the United Kingdom

Abstract

Does the strength of a country’s counterterrorism response impact salafi-jihadist radicalization networks? This thesis seeks to answer that previously unaddressed question through an empirical approach to the counterterrorism efforts in the United Kingdom, France, and Belgium. It argues - on the basis of security service funding, legal infrastructure, and interagency cooperation - that the United Kingdom, followed by France, has mounted the strongest counterterrorism effort and hypothesizes that the relative strength of these efforts affects the proportions of each country’s salafi-jihadists radicalized through HGO (hierarchical, goal-oriented), mosque-based, family, friend, and online networks. To assess these hypotheses, demographic and source of radicalization data was compiled for 179 Belgian, 170 French, and 237 British salafi-jihadists, constituting the largest cross-country database of salafi-jihadist biographies analyzed in political science literature. The analysis revealed a strong inverse relationship between the strength of a nation’s counterterrorism effort and the proportion of the nation’s salafi-jihadists radicalized through HGO networks. These results indicate that high levels of security service funding, close interagency cooperation, and wide legal authority reduce radicalization through HGO networks, which have been associated with large terror attacks.