Heart rate is associated with progression of atrial fibrillation, independent of rhythm.
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OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal or persistent to more sustained forms, but the rate and predictors of AF progression in clinical practice are not well described. METHODS: Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF, we analysed the incidence and predictors of progression and tested the discrimination and calibration of the HATCH (hypertension, age, TIA/stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure) and CHA₂DS₂VASc scores for identifying AF progression. RESULTS: Among 6235 patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF at baseline, 1479 progressed, during follow-up (median 18 (IQR 12-24) months). These patients were older and had more comorbidities than patients who did not progress (CHADS₂ 2.3±1.3 vs 2.1±1.3, p<0.0001). At baseline, patients with AF progression were more often on a rate control as opposed to a rhythm control strategy (66 vs 56%, p<0.0001) and had higher heart rate (72(64-80) vs 68(60-76) bpm, p<0.0001). The strongest predictors of AF progression were AF on the baseline ECG (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.95 to 2.73, p<0.0001) and increasing age (OR 1.16, 95% CI1.09 to 1.24, p<0.0001, per 10 increase), while patients with lower heart rate (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.89, p<0.0001, per 10 decrease ≤80) were less likely to progress. There was no significant interaction between rhythm on baseline ECG and heart rate (p=0.71). The HATCH and CHA₂DS₂VASc scores had modest discriminatory power for AF progression (C-indices 0.55 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.58) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.57)). CONCLUSIONS: Within 1.5 years, almost a quarter of the patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF progress to a more sustained form. Progression is strongly associated with heart rate, and age.
Aged, 80 and over
Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1136/heartjnl-2014-307043
Publication InfoChang, P; Fonarow, GC; Freeman, JV; Gersh, Bernard John; Holmqvist, Fredrik Nils; Kim, S; ... Thomas, Laine Elliott (2015). Heart rate is associated with progression of atrial fibrillation, independent of rhythm. Heart, 101(11). pp. 894-899. 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-307043. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15008.
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Adjunct Professor in the Department of Medicine
Visiting Research Scholar in the Department of Medicine
This author no longer has a Scholars@Duke profile, so the information shown here reflects their Duke status at the time this item was deposited.
Fred Cobb, M.D. Professor of Medicine
Dr Peterson is the Fred Cobb Distinguished Professor of Medicine in the Division of Cardiology, a DukeMed Scholar, and the Past Executive Director of the Duke Clinical Research Institute (DCRI), Durham, NC, USA. Dr Peterson is the Principal Investigator of the National Institute of Health, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Spironolactone Initiation Registry Randomized Interventional Trial in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (SPIRRIT) Trial He is also the Principal I
Associate Professor of Medicine
Jonathan P. Piccini, MD, MHS is a clinical cardiac electrophysiologist and Associate Professor of Medicine at Duke University Medical Center and the Duke Clinical Research Institute. His research interests include the conduct of clinical trials and the assessment of cardiovascular therapeutics for the care of patients with heart rhythm disorders. At present, he is the Director of the EP Clinical Trials Program and Arrhythmia Core Laboratory at Duke University. He also serves on the Clinical W
Associate Professor of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics
Measurement error, longitudinal data, joint modeling
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