Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions.
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The current study examined whether teacher and parent ratings of externalizing behavior during kindergarten and 1st grade accurately predicted the presence of adult convictions by age 25. Data were collected as part of the Fast Track Project. Schools were identified based on poverty and crime rates in four locations: Durham, NC, Nashville, TN, Seattle, WA, and rural, central PA. Teacher and parent screening measures of externalizing behavior were collected at the end of kindergarten and 1st grade. ROC curves were used to visually depict the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity and best model fit was determined. Five of the six combinations of screen scores across time points and raters met both the specificity and sensitivity cutoffs for a well-performing screening tool. When data were examined within each site separately, screen scores performed better in sites with high base rates and models including single teacher screens accurately predicted convictions. Similarly, screen scores performed better and could be used more parsimoniously for males, but not females (whose base rates were lower in this sample). Overall, results indicated that early elementary screens for conduct problems perform remarkably well when predicting criminal convictions 20 years later. However, because of variations in base rates, screens operated differently by gender and location. The results indicated that for populations with high base rates, convictions can be accurately predicted with as little as one teacher screen taken during kindergarten or 1st grade, increasing the cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions.
Published Version (Please cite this version)10.1007/s10802-018-0478-7
Publication InfoCoie, John; Lochman, John; Dodge, Kenneth; Kassing, Francesca; & Godwin, Jennifer (2018). Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions. Journal of abnormal child psychology. 10.1007/s10802-018-0478-7. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/17614.
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Professor Emeritus of Psychology: Social and Health Sciences
Pritzker Professor of Early Learning Policy Studies
Kenneth A. Dodge is the Pritzker Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience at Duke University. He is also the founding and past director of the Center for Child and Family Policy. He is a leading scholar in the development and prevention of aggressive and violent behaviors. His work provides a model for understanding how some young children grow up to engage in aggression and violence and provides a fram
Adjunct Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences
My current research interests fall into three primary areas. First, we are engaged in a series of studies examining dysfunctional social-cognitive processes of aggressive children and adolescents. Recently, we have examined the unique and shared social cognition problems of severely violent vs. moderately aggressive boys, and we have explored how certain aspects of social information processing (e.g. attributions are predictive of reactive aggression, while other components (e.g. outcome
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