Assessing the Hydrologic Implications of Land Use Change for the Upper Neuse River Basin
Abstract
Land cover plays a vital role in the chemistry and the quantity of runoff, and therefore
can indirectly have an immense impact on the water quality of stream and river systems.
Simulation models have become extremely useful tools available to watershed managers
as geospatial environmental datasets become increasingly more available. The Soil
and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict
hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales. This project evaluates
the accuracy of the SWAT model for the Upper Neuse River Basin, while comparing two
land use scenarios in an effort to identify sensitive regions in the watershed. A
regression analysis between observed and predicted stream velocity demonstrated that
the initial model required calibration of stream parameters in order to more accurately
model the natural system. After calibration, stream sedimentation values were compared
by subbasin between a current (2001) and future (2010) land use scenario, in order
to identify areas in the watershed that were the most susceptible to degradation via
urbanization. Out of the 138 catchments delineated in the watershed, 29 experienced
no relative change while the remaining 109 all displayed an increase in the relative
difference of the sedimentation rate between scenarios. Subbasins with the greatest
potential for degradation were identified and prioritized for conservation efforts
or further analysis. The subbasins experiencing the highest increase in both the relative
change as well as the percent change in sediment yield are all in either Wake or Durham
County, suggesting a need for conservation planning in these regions. Moreover, through
examining the spatial variability of these results, the influence of regional characteristics
like slope, land use and soil type can be exemplified. The tremendous variation in
sediment yield that occurs with urbanization suggests that local spatial conditions
can exert a noticable influential on water quality and should be taken into account
to maximize future management efforts. Overall, environmental tools such as the SWAT
model demonstrate their usefulness in helping inform land use decisions, and can assist
environmental managers in protecting water quality.
Type
Master's projectPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/2205Citation
Conaghan, Kelly (2010). Assessing the Hydrologic Implications of Land Use Change for the Upper Neuse River
Basin. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/2205.Collections
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