An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

dc.contributor.author

Sullivan, B

dc.contributor.author

Ming, D

dc.contributor.author

Boggan, JC

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Schulteis, RD

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Thomas, S

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Choi, J

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Bae, J

dc.coverage.spatial

United States

dc.date.accessioned

2016-05-20T16:08:46Z

dc.date.issued

2015-12

dc.description.abstract

The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the next day, on the same day, or neither. Discharge predictions were recorded at 3 time points: mornings (7-9 am), midday (12-2 pm), or afternoons (5-7 pm), for a total of 2641 predictions. For predictions of next-day discharge, the sensitivity (SN) and positive predictive value (PPV) were lowest in the morning (27% and 33%, respectively), but increased by the afternoon (SN 67%, PPV 69%). Similarly, for same-day discharge predictions, SN and PPV were highest at midday (88% and 79%, respectively). We found that although physicians have difficulty predicting next-day discharges in the morning prior to the day of expected discharge, their ability to correctly predict discharges continually improved as the time to actual discharge decreased. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;10:808-810. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

dc.identifier

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26434397

dc.identifier.eissn

1553-5606

dc.identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10161/12041

dc.language

eng

dc.publisher

Wiley: 12 months

dc.relation.ispartof

J Hosp Med

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10.1002/jhm.2439

dc.subject

Clinical Competence

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Forecasting

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General Practice

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Humans

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Patient Discharge

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Physicians

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Prospective Studies

dc.title

An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

dc.type

Journal article

duke.contributor.orcid

Sullivan, B|0000-0002-7098-6261

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Ming, D|0000-0003-2836-6656

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Boggan, JC|0000-0003-3564-2807

duke.contributor.orcid

Thomas, S|0000-0002-1561-9303

pubs.author-url

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26434397

pubs.begin-page

808

pubs.end-page

810

pubs.issue

12

pubs.organisational-group

Clinical Science Departments

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Duke

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Medicine

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Medicine, General Internal Medicine

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Medicine, Hospitalists

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Pediatrics

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Pediatrics, Medicine

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Pediatrics Program

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School of Medicine

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Staff

pubs.publication-status

Published

pubs.volume

10

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