Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy.

dc.contributor.author

Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune

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Rau, Roland

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Jeune, Bernard

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Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

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Lenart, Adam

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Christensen, Kaare

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Vaupel, James W

dc.coverage.spatial

United States

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2017-06-01T17:46:28Z

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2017-06-01T17:46:28Z

dc.date.issued

2016-04-12

dc.description.abstract

Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects' relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.

dc.identifier

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27035998

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1602783113

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1091-6490

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https://hdl.handle.net/10161/14648

dc.language

eng

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

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10.1073/pnas.1602783113

dc.subject

cohort effects

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decomposition

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interwar Danish women

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life expectancy

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period effects

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Aged

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Aged, 80 and over

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Cause of Death

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Denmark

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Female

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Humans

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Life Expectancy

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Longevity

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Population Dynamics

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Sweden

dc.title

Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy.

dc.type

Journal article

pubs.author-url

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27035998

pubs.begin-page

4015

pubs.end-page

4020

pubs.issue

15

pubs.organisational-group

Center for Population Health & Aging

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Duke

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Duke Population Research Institute

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Sanford School of Public Policy

pubs.publication-status

Published

pubs.volume

113

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