Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States


Background—Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results—To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions—These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.





Heidenreich, P. A., J. G. Trogdon, et al. (2011). "Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States." Circulation 123(8): 933-944.

Published Version (Please cite this version)


Publication Info

Heidenreich, Paul A, Justin G Trogdon, Olga A Khavjou, Javed Butler, Kathleen Dracup, Michael D Ezekowitz, Eric Andrew Finkelstein, Yuling Hong, et al. (2011). Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States. 10.1161/CIR.0b013e31820a55f5 Retrieved from

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Eric Andrew Finkelstein

Professor in Population Health Sciences

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