A Geospatial Approach to Understanding Poaching Behavior of ESA-listed and Endemic Dudleya on Santa Cruz Island within Channel Islands National Park

The Covid 19 pandemic has catalyzed the increase in plant poaching incidents, particularly with species of Dudleya in California. As people were confined to their homes, houseplant collecting popularity rose worldwide. For Santa Cruz Island, the threat is great with large areas of land and few on-ground managers to monitor for such risks. These managers face the challenge of how best to predict poaching before it occurs in an area to maximize the efficiency of their smaller staff. Using geospatial data, I model three distinct poaching behaviors to gain a better understanding on how to proactively monitor for poaching events. I also use the models to identify areas where certain poaching behaviors are not represented, presenting an opportunity for model tuning through site visits. Through proactive behavioral modeling, land managers have an increased understanding of where to focus their attention to minimize poaching risk.