Predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after ablation in patients with heart failure: Validity of the APPLE and CAAP-AF risk scoring systems.

dc.contributor.author

Black-Maier, Eric

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Parish, Alice

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Steinberg, Benjamin A

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Green, Cynthia L

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Loring, Zak

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Barnett, Adam S

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Al-Khatib, Sana M

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Atwater, Brett D

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Daubert, James P

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Frazier-Mills, Camille

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Hegland, Donald D

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Jackson, Kevin P

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Jackson, Larry R

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Koontz, Jason

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Lewis, Robert K

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Pokorney, Sean D

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Sun, Albert Y

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Thomas, Kevin L

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Bahnson, Tristam D

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Piccini, Jonathan P

dc.date.accessioned

2024-04-04T21:59:10Z

dc.date.available

2024-04-04T21:59:10Z

dc.date.issued

2019-11

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Background

Compared with medical therapy, catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with heart failure (HF) improves cardiovascular outcomes. Risk scores (CAAP-AF and APPLE) have been developed to predict the likelihood of AF recurrence after ablation, have not been validated specifically in patients with AF and HF.

Methods

We analyzed baseline characteristics, risk scores, and rates of AF recurrence 12 months postablation in a cohort of 230 consecutive patients with AF and HF undergoing PVI in the Duke Center for Atrial Fibrillation registry from 2009-2013.

Results

During a follow-up period of 12 months, 76 of 230 (33%) patients with HF experienced recurrent AF after ablation. The median APPLE and CAAP-AF scores were 1.5 ([Q1, Q3]: [1.0, 2.0]) and 4.0 ([Q1, Q3]: [3.0, 5.0]), respectively and were not different from those patients with and without recurrent AF. Freedom from AF was not different according to APPLE and CAAP-AF scores. Discrimination for recurrent AF with the CAAP-AF score was modest with a C-statistic of 0.60 (95% CI 0.52-0.67). Discrimination with the APPLE score was similarly modest, with a C-statistic of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.47-0.62).

Conclusions

Validated predictive risk scores for recurrent AF after catheter ablation exhibit limited predictive ability in cohorts of AF and HF. Additional tools are needed to facilitate risk stratification and patient selection for AF ablation in patients with concomitant HF.
dc.identifier.issn

0147-8389

dc.identifier.issn

1540-8159

dc.identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10161/30483

dc.language

eng

dc.publisher

Wiley

dc.relation.ispartof

Pacing and clinical electrophysiology : PACE

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10.1111/pace.13805

dc.rights.uri

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

dc.subject

Humans

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Atrial Fibrillation

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Recurrence

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Catheter Ablation

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Risk Assessment

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Retrospective Studies

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Cohort Studies

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Predictive Value of Tests

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Aged

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Middle Aged

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Female

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Male

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Heart Failure

dc.title

Predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after ablation in patients with heart failure: Validity of the APPLE and CAAP-AF risk scoring systems.

dc.type

Journal article

duke.contributor.orcid

Green, Cynthia L|0000-0002-0186-5191

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Loring, Zak|0000-0002-4613-582X

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Al-Khatib, Sana M|0000-0002-3561-0146

duke.contributor.orcid

Daubert, James P|0000-0002-9616-9219

duke.contributor.orcid

Jackson, Larry R|0000-0002-0195-1081

duke.contributor.orcid

Pokorney, Sean D|0000-0002-4345-0816

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Thomas, Kevin L|0000-0002-0040-5396

duke.contributor.orcid

Bahnson, Tristam D|0000-0001-9001-506X

duke.contributor.orcid

Piccini, Jonathan P|0000-0003-0772-2404

pubs.begin-page

1440

pubs.end-page

1447

pubs.issue

11

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Duke

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School of Medicine

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Faculty

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Staff

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Basic Science Departments

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Clinical Science Departments

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Institutes and Centers

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Biostatistics & Bioinformatics

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Medicine

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Medicine, Cardiology

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Duke Clinical Research Institute

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Population Health Sciences

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Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics

pubs.publication-status

Published

pubs.volume

42

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