Heart rate is associated with progression of atrial fibrillation, independent of rhythm.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) often progresses from paroxysmal or persistent to more sustained forms, but the rate and predictors of AF progression in clinical practice are not well described. METHODS: Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF, we analysed the incidence and predictors of progression and tested the discrimination and calibration of the HATCH (hypertension, age, TIA/stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure) and CHA₂DS₂VASc scores for identifying AF progression. RESULTS: Among 6235 patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF at baseline, 1479 progressed, during follow-up (median 18 (IQR 12-24) months). These patients were older and had more comorbidities than patients who did not progress (CHADS₂ 2.3±1.3 vs 2.1±1.3, p<0.0001). At baseline, patients with AF progression were more often on a rate control as opposed to a rhythm control strategy (66 vs 56%, p<0.0001) and had higher heart rate (72(64-80) vs 68(60-76) bpm, p<0.0001). The strongest predictors of AF progression were AF on the baseline ECG (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.95 to 2.73, p<0.0001) and increasing age (OR 1.16, 95% CI1.09 to 1.24, p<0.0001, per 10 increase), while patients with lower heart rate (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.89, p<0.0001, per 10 decrease ≤80) were less likely to progress. There was no significant interaction between rhythm on baseline ECG and heart rate (p=0.71). The HATCH and CHA₂DS₂VASc scores had modest discriminatory power for AF progression (C-indices 0.55 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.58) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.57)). CONCLUSIONS: Within 1.5 years, almost a quarter of the patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF progress to a more sustained form. Progression is strongly associated with heart rate, and age.

Department

Description

Provenance

Subjects

Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Atrial Fibrillation, Cohort Studies, Disease Progression, Female, Heart Failure, Heart Rate, Humans, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Male, Risk Factors

Citation

Published Version (Please cite this version)

10.1136/heartjnl-2014-307043

Publication Info

Holmqvist, Fredrik, Sunghee Kim, Benjamin A Steinberg, James A Reiffel, Kenneth W Mahaffey, Bernard J Gersh, Gregg C Fonarow, Gerald V Naccarelli, et al. (2015). Heart rate is associated with progression of atrial fibrillation, independent of rhythm. Heart, 101(11). pp. 894–899. 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-307043 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/15008.

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Scholars@Duke

Thomas

Laine Elliott Thomas

Professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics

As Deputy Director, Laine Thomas, PhD provides complementary leadership in strategy and development of the group and DCRI. She has an outstanding record of scientific and strategic collaboration, independent research, leadership and mentoring well known to her colleagues at the DCRI.

Thomas joined the DCRI in 2009. She serves as Associate Director for Biostatistics at DCRI and Associate Chair for Equity, Diversity and Inclusion within the Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. She is a leader in developmental methods for observational and pragmatic studies. She has over 240 peer reviewed clinical and methodological publications arising from scientific collaboration in the therapeutic areas of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, uterine fibroids and SARS-CoV-2 virus. She led the statistical teams on the HERO COVID-19, ORBIT-AF I & II, ACTION-CMS, CHAMP-HF, and COMPARE-UF clinical registries and secondary analyses of the NAVIGATOR and ARISTOTLE clinical trials. She is the primary investigator of numerous methodological studies arising from these collaborations, addressing methods for causal inference in observational data, longitudinal treatment initiation, heterogeneous treatment effects and clinical trials augmented by external controls.

Piccini

Jonathan Paul Piccini

Professor of Medicine

Jonathan P. Piccini, MD, MHS, FACC, FAHA, FHRS is a clinical cardiac electrophysiologist and Professor of Medicine at Duke University Medical Center and the Duke Clinical Research Institute. He is the Director of the Cardiac Electrophysiology section at the Duke Heart Center. His focus is on the care of patients with atrial fibrillation and complex arrhythmias, with particular emphasis on catheter ablation and lead extraction. His research interests include the development and evaluation of innovative cardiovascular interventions for the treatment heart rhythm disorders. He has served as the chairman for several national and international clinical trials and registries, including the American Heart Association-Get with the Guidelines Atrial Fibrillation program. He is an Associate Editor at JACC: Clinical Electrophysiology and is an elected member of the American Society for Clinical Investigation. Dr. Piccini has more than 550 publications in the field of heart rhythm medicine and has been the recipient of several teaching and mentorship awards.


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