Bone scan positivity in non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer: external validation study.



Tables predicting the probability of a positive bone scan in men with non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer have recently been reported. We performed an external validation study of these bone scan positivity tables.

Materials and methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients seen at a tertiary care medical center (1996-2012) to select patients with non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer. Abstracted data included demographic, anthropometric, and disease-specific data such as patient race, BMI, PSA kinetics, and primary treatment. Primary outcome was metastasis on bone scan. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using generalized estimating equations to adjust for repeated measures. Risk table performance was assessed using ROC curves.


We identified 6.509 patients with prostate cancer who had received hormonal therapy with a post-hormonal therapy PSA ≥2ng/mL, 363 of whom had non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer. Of these, 187 patients (356 bone scans) had calculable PSA kinetics and ≥1 bone scan. Median follow-up after castrate-resistant prostate cancer diagnosis was 32 months (IQR: 19-48). There were 227 (64%) negative and 129 (36%) positive bone scans. On multivariable analysis, higher PSA at castrate-resistant prostate cancer (4.67 vs. 4.4ng/mL, OR=0.57, P=0.02), shorter time from castrate-resistant prostate cancer to scan (7.9 vs. 14.6 months, OR=0.97, P=0.006) and higher PSA at scan (OR=2.91, P<0.0001) were significantly predictive of bone scan positivity. The AUC of the previously published risk tables for predicting scan positivity was 0.72.


Previously published risk tables predicted bone scan positivity in men with non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer with reasonable accuracy.





Published Version (Please cite this version)


Publication Info

Johnston, Ashley W, Thomas A Longo, Leah Gerber Davis, Daniel Zapata, Stephen J Freedland and Jonathan C Routh (2020). Bone scan positivity in non-metastatic, castrate-resistant prostate cancer: external validation study. International braz j urol : official journal of the Brazilian Society of Urology, 46(1). pp. 42–52. 10.1590/s1677-5538.ibju.2019.0225 Retrieved from

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Jonathan Charles Routh

Paul H. Sherman, M.D. Distinguished Associate Professor of Surgery

I am a pediatric urologist and health services researcher who is interested in caring for children with urological problems, conducting research on how to improve that care, and mentoring young researchers to ensure that the next generation does both better than I currently can. 

My clinical interests include minimally-invasive surgery, neurogenic and non-neurogenic voiding dysfunction, complex urologic reconstruction (particularly in children with spina bifida), and pediatric urologic oncology (particularly Wilms tumor and rhabdomyosarcoma). My research has been funded by awards from the NIH, CDC, FDA, and multiple foundations and industry partners, and during my time on faculty at Duke I have had the pleasure of collaborating with many groups and individuals around the world on a number of projects. Over the past 15 years, I have formally mentored nearly 3 dozen undergraduates, medical students, urology residents, post-doctoral students, and junior faculty members across multiple disciplines (pediatrics, urogynecology, urology, and nursing).

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