Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model.
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2021-06-22
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Abstract
Background
Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability.Methods
We developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states-(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations.Results
From 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17·9 million (17·8-18·0) million in 2015 to 96·2 (95·3-97·1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3·7 million (3·6-3·7 million) in 2015 to 23·9 million (23·4-24·6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12·2% (12·1-12·3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11·4 million (11·3-11·5 million) in 2015 to 47·8 million (47·5-48·2 million) by 2060-this representing an annual growth of 7·07% (7·05-7·09).Conclusion
Our findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.Type
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Ansah, John P, Chi-Tsun Chiu, Aloysius Chia Wei-Yan, Tessa Lui Shi Min and David B Matchar (2021). Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model. BMC geriatrics, 21(1). p. 380. 10.1186/s12877-021-02309-4 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/23432.
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Scholars@Duke
David Bruce Matchar
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, and cancer prevention.
Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis; (2) a balancing of methodological rigor the needs of medical professionals; and (3) dependence on interdisciplinary groups of experts.
This approach is best illustrated by the Stroke Prevention Patient Outcome Research Team (PORT), for which I served as principal investigator. Funded by the AHCPR, the PORT involved 35 investigators at 13 institutions. The Stroke PORT has been highly productive and has led to a stroke prevention project funded as a public/private partnership by the AHCPR and DuPont Pharma, the Managing Anticoagulation Services Trial (MAST). MAST is a practice improvement trial in 6 managed care organizations, focussing on optimizing anticoagulation for individuals with atrial fibrillation.
I serve as consultant in the general area of analytic strategies for clinical policy development, as well as for specific projects related to stroke (e.g., acute stroke treatment, management of atrial fibrillation, and use of carotid endarterectomy.) I have worked with AHCPR (now AHRQ), ACP, AHA, AAN, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, NSA, WHO, and several pharmaceutical companies.
Key Words: clinical policy, disease management, stroke, decision analysis, clinical guidelines
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