Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus.
Date
2021-10
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Repository Usage Stats
views
downloads
Citation Stats
Abstract
Importance
The importance of surveillance testing and quarantine on university campuses to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission needs to be reevaluated in the context of a complex and rapidly changing environment that includes vaccines, variants, and waning immunity. Also, recent US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines suggest that vaccinated students do not need to participate in surveillance testing.Objective
To evaluate the use of surveillance testing and quarantine in a fully vaccinated student population for whom vaccine effectiveness may be affected by the type of vaccination, presence of variants, and loss of vaccine-induced or natural immunity over time.Design setting and participants
In this simulation study, an agent-based Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered model was developed with some parameters estimated using data from the 2020 to 2021 academic year at Duke University (Durham, North Carolina) that described a simulated population of 5000 undergraduate students residing on campus in residential dormitories. This study assumed that 100% of residential undergraduates are vaccinated. Under varying levels of vaccine effectiveness (90%, 75%, and 50%), the reductions in the numbers of positive cases under various mitigation strategies that involved surveillance testing and quarantine were estimated.Main outcomes and measures
The percentage of students infected with SARS-CoV-2 each day for the course of the semester (100 days) and the total number of isolated or quarantined students were estimated.Results
A total of 5000 undergraduates were simulated in the study. In simulations with 90% vaccine effectiveness, weekly surveillance testing was associated with only marginally reduced viral transmission. At 50% to 75% effectiveness, surveillance testing was estimated to reduce the number of infections by as much as 93.6%. A 10-day quarantine protocol for exposures was associated with only modest reduction in infections until vaccine effectiveness dropped to 50%. Increased testing of reported contacts was estimated to be at least as effective as quarantine at limiting infections.Conclusions and relevance
In this simulated modeling study of infection dynamics on a college campus where 100% of the student body is vaccinated, weekly surveillance testing was associated with a substantial reduction of campus infections with even a modest loss of vaccine effectiveness. Model simulations also suggested that an increased testing cadence can be as effective as a 10-day quarantine period at limiting infections. Together, these findings provide a potential foundation for universities to design appropriate mitigation protocols for the 2021 to 2022 academic year.Type
Department
Description
Provenance
Subjects
Citation
Permalink
Published Version (Please cite this version)
Publication Info
Motta, Francis C, Kevin A McGoff, Anastasia Deckard, Cameron R Wolfe, Mattia Bonsignori, M Anthony Moody, Kyle Cavanaugh, Thomas N Denny, et al. (2021). Assessment of Simulated Surveillance Testing and Quarantine in a SARS-CoV-2-Vaccinated Population of Students on a University Campus. JAMA health forum, 2(10). p. e213035. 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.3035 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/25649.
This is constructed from limited available data and may be imprecise. To cite this article, please review & use the official citation provided by the journal.
Collections
Scholars@Duke
Cameron Robert Wolfe
HIV infection, Transplant-related infectious diseases, general infectious diseases, Biological and Emergency Preparedness for hospital systems, influenza and respiratory viral pathogens
Michael Anthony Moody
Tony Moody, MD is a Professor in the Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases and Professor in the Department of Integrative Immunobiology at Duke University Medical Center. Research in the Moody lab is focused on understanding the B cell responses during infection, vaccination, and disease. The lab has become a resource for human phenotyping, flow characterization, staining and analysis at the Duke Human Vaccine Institute (DHVI). The Moody lab is currently funded to study influenza, syphilis, HIV-1, and emerging infectious diseases.
Dr. Moody is the director of the Duke CIVICs Vaccine Center (DCVC) at (DHVI) and co-director of the Centers for Research of Emerging Infectious Disease Coordinating Center (CREID-CC). Dr. Moody is mPI of a U01 program to develop a syphilis vaccine; this program is a collaboration with mPI Dr. Justin Radolf at the University of Connecticut. Dr. Moody is also the director of the DHVI Accessioning Unit, a biorepository that provides support for work occurring at DHVI and with its many collaborators around the world by providing processing, shipping, and inventory support for a wide array of projects.
Dr. Moody and his team are involved in many networks studying vaccine response including the Collaborative Influenza Vaccine Innovation Centers (CIVICs) and the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN).
Unless otherwise indicated, scholarly articles published by Duke faculty members are made available here with a CC-BY-NC (Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial) license, as enabled by the Duke Open Access Policy. If you wish to use the materials in ways not already permitted under CC-BY-NC, please consult the copyright owner. Other materials are made available here through the author’s grant of a non-exclusive license to make their work openly accessible.