Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

Ansah, John P

De Korne, Dirk

Bayer, Steffen

Pan, Chong

Jayabaskar, Thiyagarajan

Matchar, David B

Lew, Nicola

Phua, Andrew

Koh, Victoria

Lamoureux, Ecosse

Quek, Desmond

England

2016-03-02T04:00:12Z

2015-11-17

BACKGROUND: Singapore's population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. METHODS: The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. RESULTS: Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8-22 residents per year is required, 17-21 under the current policy scenario, 14-18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18-23 residents per year is required. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore's aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26578002

10.1186/s12960-015-0085-4

1478-4491

https://hdl.handle.net/10161/11683

eng

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Hum Resour Health

10.1186/s12960-015-0085-4

Aged

Aging

Eye Diseases

Forecasting

Health Manpower

Health Policy

Health Services Needs and Demand

Health Services for the Aged

Humans

Internship and Residency

Models, Theoretical

Ophthalmology

Physicians

Population Growth

Prevalence

Public Sector

Singapore

Work

Workload

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore.

Journal article

Matchar, David B|0000-0003-3020-2108

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26578002

86

Clinical Science Departments

Duke

Duke Clinical Research Institute

Global Health Institute

Institutes and Centers

Institutes and Provost's Academic Units

Medicine

Medicine, General Internal Medicine

Pathology

School of Medicine

University Institutes and Centers

Published online

13