Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Precipitation Extremes

Abstract

The probability of climate extremes is strongly affected by atmospheric circulation This study quantifies the worldwide influence of three major modes of circulation on station based indices of intense precipitation the El Nino-Southern Oscillation the Pacific interdecadal variability as characterized by the North Pacific index (NPI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Northern Annular Mode The study examines which stations show a statistically significant (5%) difference between the positive and negative phases of a circulation regime Results show distinct regional patterns of response to all these modes of climate variability however precipitation extremes are most substantially affected by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation The effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the world, including in India Africa South America, the Pacific Rim North America and weakly Europe The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong continent wide effect on Eurasia and affects a small but not negligible percentage of stations across the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes This percentage Increases slightly if the Northern Annular Mode Index is used rather than the NAO index In that case a region of increase in intense precipitation can also be found in Southeast Asia The NPI influence on precipitation extremes is similar to the response to El Nino and strongest in landmasses adjacent to the Pacific Consistently indices of more rare precipitation events show a weaker response to circulation than indices of moderate extremes, the results are quite similar but of opposite sign for negative anomalies of the circulation indices