Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals
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2019-09-01
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Background: Prevalence of chronic eye conditions has been shown to increase with age. As the global population continues to age rapidly, the demand for eye care services is expected to increase significantly in the near future, requiring effective health workforce planning in order to provide for the needs of the population. The aim of this paper is to synthesize data from a variety of sources to develop a simulation model based on the systems modelling methodology of system dynamics that links population health needs to workforce requirements to generate evidence-based projections for ophthalmic nurses, and allied health ophthalmic professionals in Singapore. Methods: A system dynamics simulation model was developed with active engagement of key stakeholders—such as ophthalmologists, senior nurses, healthcare planners and managers, and senior technicians—to verify the model structure and assumptions. The model project the future requirement of ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants. Results: The number of Singaporeans with eye diseases is projected to more than double by 2040. As a result, the demand for eye care services and eye care workforce is expected to increase significantly under all the plausible scenarios. The increase in eye disease burden is due mainly to population aging—given that the prevalence of eye disease increases with age. Conclusion: This research provides a future demand outlook for ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants in Singapore and has implications for recruitment and training of ophthalmic nurses and allied health professionals in Singapore.
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Ansah, JP, V Koh, D De Korne, T Jayabaskar, DB Matchar and D Quek (2019). Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals. Health Policy and Technology, 8(3). pp. 282–295. 10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.08.004 Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/22779.
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Scholars@Duke
David Bruce Matchar
My research relates to clinical practice improvement - from the development of clinical policies to their implementation in real world clinical settings. Most recently my major content focus has been cerebrovascular disease. Other major clinical areas in which I work include the range of disabling neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, and cancer prevention.
Notable features of my work are: (1) reliance on analytic strategies such as meta-analysis, simulation, decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis; (2) a balancing of methodological rigor the needs of medical professionals; and (3) dependence on interdisciplinary groups of experts.
This approach is best illustrated by the Stroke Prevention Patient Outcome Research Team (PORT), for which I served as principal investigator. Funded by the AHCPR, the PORT involved 35 investigators at 13 institutions. The Stroke PORT has been highly productive and has led to a stroke prevention project funded as a public/private partnership by the AHCPR and DuPont Pharma, the Managing Anticoagulation Services Trial (MAST). MAST is a practice improvement trial in 6 managed care organizations, focussing on optimizing anticoagulation for individuals with atrial fibrillation.
I serve as consultant in the general area of analytic strategies for clinical policy development, as well as for specific projects related to stroke (e.g., acute stroke treatment, management of atrial fibrillation, and use of carotid endarterectomy.) I have worked with AHCPR (now AHRQ), ACP, AHA, AAN, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, NSA, WHO, and several pharmaceutical companies.
Key Words: clinical policy, disease management, stroke, decision analysis, clinical guidelines
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