Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals

Abstract

Background: Prevalence of chronic eye conditions has been shown to increase with age. As the global population continues to age rapidly, the demand for eye care services is expected to increase significantly in the near future, requiring effective health workforce planning in order to provide for the needs of the population. The aim of this paper is to synthesize data from a variety of sources to develop a simulation model based on the systems modelling methodology of system dynamics that links population health needs to workforce requirements to generate evidence-based projections for ophthalmic nurses, and allied health ophthalmic professionals in Singapore. Methods: A system dynamics simulation model was developed with active engagement of key stakeholders—such as ophthalmologists, senior nurses, healthcare planners and managers, and senior technicians—to verify the model structure and assumptions. The model project the future requirement of ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants. Results: The number of Singaporeans with eye diseases is projected to more than double by 2040. As a result, the demand for eye care services and eye care workforce is expected to increase significantly under all the plausible scenarios. The increase in eye disease burden is due mainly to population aging—given that the prevalence of eye disease increases with age. Conclusion: This research provides a future demand outlook for ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants in Singapore and has implications for recruitment and training of ophthalmic nurses and allied health professionals in Singapore.