Analysis of Global Sea Level Rise Impact and Adaptation Risk Assessments
Abstract
Global sea levels currently are rising and will continue to rise far into the future.
This rise engenders significant risks to life and the environment, as it creates negative
physical, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. The precise magnitude
of the impacts depends on a diversity of variables, e.g., the amount the sea will
rise, the magnitude of storm surges, and the types of adaptation and protection measures
in place to mitigate the impacts.
If the various geographic regions across the globe are to adequately prepare for the
rising sea, it is necessary to conduct risk assessments to determine which specific
impacts and the policy options that are necessary to mitigate those impacts. While
many regions have conducted analyses and are planning adaptation measures, many have
neither thoroughly assessed the impacts nor planned adequately for the risks. Additionally,
some regions that have conducted analyses did not rigorously assess the impacts or
a diversity of possible policy options. This may be due to lack of sufficient funding
to conduct the assessment, lack of knowledge of the severity of the issue, or lack
of expertise to conduct a thorough assessment.
This paper examines a diversity of risk assessments conducted by regions worldwide.
It includes a range of studies that assess regions with different economic capacities,
types of terrain, location, and that implement a range of different methodologies.
It examines and compares the impacts and policy options included in the analyses,
as well as the variable inputs and evaluation criteria that were implemented to conduct
the assessments. While some previous studies have analyzed a particular risk assessment
methodology for sea level rise or compared adaptation measures, no previous study
has been conducted to comparatively weigh the components and results of impact and
adaptation risk assessments.
Through a comparison of the components and results of a variety of risk analyses,
this study provides valuable insights into the diverse impacts and possible policy
options that may be selected for inclusion in future sea level rise studies. The
goal of this study is to assist regions in tackling the problem of sea level rise
by providing a foundation to streamline the process for future assessments.
Based on the assessed reports, the results demonstrate that the most commonly analyzed
impacts are those to a region’s economy and population. Additionally, the impacts
to a region’s infrastructure, particularly transportation infrastructure, and total
land surface appear to be of great importance. The variable inputs that appear to
be most commonly applied to assess the impacts are storm surge and a range of sea
level rise scenarios, as opposed to one specific future sea level rise quantity.
The results of a comparison of reports that analyze policy options to sea level rise
show that hard adaptation options (e.g., dikes, sea walls, breakwaters) are more commonly
assessed than soft adaptation options (e.g., land use change, relocation). Of the
hard and soft measure categories, natural barriers and resettle were included in the
most reports. Additionally, it appears valuable to include the current protection
activities and policies of a region in an assessment. The criteria most utilized
for conducting the policy evaluations are the protection cost of a measure and its
environmental impacts. While not all reports proposed an exact recommendation that
the study area should pursue for mitigating sea level rise impacts, soft options were
more frequently recommended at the conclusion of the reports.
The majority of the studies were conducted with quantitative methods. However, it
is recommended that future assessments also include a qualitative perspective. It
may be valuable to discuss the impacts of sea level rise with residents of an area
to determine which impacts are considered most important to mitigate and to determine
the most appropriate adaptation options to pursue in preparation for mitigating those
impacts.
There is no correlation between a study region and the quantity of impacts analyzed
or depth of the impacts assessed. Additionally, there is no correlation between a
study region and the policy options pursued.
Lastly, omissions of variables and criteria from the reports are explored. Future
impact studies should include location-specific trends in sea level rise, as opposed
to assessing the impacts based on the global average future sea level rise prediction.
It is also important to incorporate the speed of the rise in a dynamic analysis, as
well as any uncertainties in a report’s input variables. Future policy assessments
should include a criterion that accounts for the human behavior and response to the
sea level rise and the implemented policy measures.
Type
Master's projectDepartment
The Sanford School of Public PolicyPermalink
https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3661Citation
Ward, Molly (2011). Analysis of Global Sea Level Rise Impact and Adaptation Risk Assessments. Master's project, Duke University. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10161/3661.More Info
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